Regime Change: FOW 1

As I said yesterday, the fog of war (FOW) is thick; every day brings a new reality and there’s no point in making long term conclusions. Like these two tweets from the same source and only a couple of hours apart:

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Putin orders Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia today.

Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass

As Putin puts nuclear forces on alert we learn of Russia-Ukraine talks. What we dont know is the tie between the two & whether the nuclear threat is an effort to impose harsh terms rather than negotiate reasonable ones. Both tho suggest Putin realizes his strategy isnt working.

Wars are complicated affairs and no one should expect it go smoothly. The question is whether the Russians will adapt and come back with a better strategy or will it be downhill from now on until regime change (in Russia, not Ukraine!).

Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass

Just days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine. Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia. A week can be a long time in politics.

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch

For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵

To be taken with a massive rock of salt since it’s propaganda.

Philippe Lemoine @phl43

Indeed, which is why before writing this tweet, you should probably have waited another week.

Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass

Just days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine. Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia. A week can be a long time in politics.

Existential uncertainty is the new reality and we have to learn how to be supple and subtle in response. The good news is that the fog of war also helps us concentrate our thoughts and figure out what’s truly important. We know however things turn out, the threat of nuclear war is important. We know climate change is important and if this war sets climate action back by a few years, that’s really important.

I find Twitter to be a good tool to get multiple perspectives from people worth taking seriously and in the FOW series, I will assemble a group of tweets as a way of thinking through one issue.

Let’s go.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

This is not going to be the groups’ favorite idea, but I think it would be advisable for the administrator to reach out to GOP leaders to discuss ideas (loan guarantees? a minimum price?) to spur a more rapid increase in domestic fracking.

Counterpoint:

Albert Pinto @70sBachchan

2/ Opportunistic Fossil companies use Ukraine crisis to get their wishlist. They have blocked $500 billion in climate investmetns in Biden's infrastrucutre bill for a year now! And are trying to get more fossil investments in the name of "energy security"

nytimes.comClimate Fears on Back Burner as Fuel Costs Soar and Russia Crisis DeepensEnergy security has gained prominence while the conflict in Ukraine raises concerns over the possible interruption in the supply of oil and natural gas.

Albert Pinto @70sBachchan

4/ Fossil fuel companies and fossil rich countries are seizing on Russian invasion of Ukraine to make the argument that US and Saudis should drill more! #GeopoliticsOfGHGs Its wrong (see thread here) but progressives must push green priorities (OP)

Gregory Brew @gbrew24

For those developing oil/gas takes, a few things to note: 1) the oil produced in the US is materially different than the oil produced in Russia. 2) the current oil market is very tight, very little spare capacity outside of UAE/KSA and Iran post-nuclear deal.

But looks like point is winning over counterpoint for now

Michael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD

After Russia invaded, a few people demanded that Europe stop buying its natural gas, but European utilities snatched up long-term Russian contracts, and the White House said, "Our sanctions are not designed to cause any disruption to the flow of energy from Russia to the world."

and here’s why:

Nikos Tsafos @ntsafos

Can Europe live without Russian gas right now? (Let’s ignore for a second whether this is a good political weapon—as in, do you think Putin will pull rethink the war if Europe stops buying Russian gas? I doubt it). Let’s just focus on numbers.

Nikos Tsafos @ntsafos

Europe imports around 400 bcm each year (using an expansive definition of “Europe”). Russia supplies around 175 to 200 bcm. The basic question is: can Europe find another 175-200 bcm in alternative gas supplies and/or reduced gas use? tl;dr: It's very tough.

But the planet doesn’t care about your gas prices:

James Murray @James_BG

Tomorrow the IPCC will publish a report setting out the genuinely terrifying scale and reach of the climate impacts already underway and coming down the line. At the same time governments across Europe will continue to scramble to develop tactics that can assist Ukraine.

That report is out with sirens blaring:

António Guterres @antonioguterres

I've seen many reports, but nothing like the new @IPCC_CH climate report, an atlas of human suffering & damning indictment of failed climate leadership. I know people everywhere are anxious & angry. I am, too. It's time to turn rage into #ClimateAction.

ipcc.chClimate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report

Ergo: my tentative conclusion:

Bill McKibben @billmckibben

The uncanny confluence of Putin's invasion and the IPCC report is a stark reminder: fossil fuel powers the worst crises facing our planet. If we use this moment to get off oil and gas, we have a fighting chance as a planet.

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So what do you think what’s going to happen? Coal plants in Germany once again? A Green Marshall Plan for Europe? Let us know in the comments.

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Some humor in these dark times:

Christo Grozev @christogrozev

!!! Ukraine's Interior ministry asked residents to take down street signs in order to confuse oncoming Russian troops. The state road-signs agency went one step further. (Roughly: all directions are to "go fuck yourselves")